What Makes The Current US Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature of US politics – but the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics along with bad blood among the two parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance because both parties – including the President – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways that make this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters has been demanding over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Well now Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised after supporting GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown early this year. Now he's holding firm.
This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back certain authority from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are using the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed government healthcare cuts for the poor, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks in government employment that have featured the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
The White House said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts of the country, including New York City and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents in an effort to get federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, stating how a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Analysts expect about 40% of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of federal operations connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, analysts say should the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.
